Yantai Yude Investment Management Co., Ltd.

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'Last Thursday, the global investment market fluctuated violently, and European and American stock markets all fell sharply except for foreign countries. : The U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly. The British FTSE Index fell. The French Index fell by .3 and the German Index fell by . The U.S. dollar index has continued to rise, reaching... Analysts at Kayford believe that European and American markets tend to expect tightening in the future under the atmosphere of U.S. Federal Reserve officials’ speeches in favor of monthly interest rate hikes. The U.S. dollar will become strong again, which is a relatively negative expectation for global risk assets. , and also put pressure on the price of gold.
' Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Sunday showed that in March, the profits of domestic industrial enterprises above designated size rose year-on-year, ending the trend of consecutive annual negative growth. The total profit of industrial producers was . Prices fell year-on-year, and the decline narrowed year-on-year. Among enterprises above designated size, the profits of state-controlled enterprises decreased year-on-year, that of collective enterprises decreased by 3%, that of joint-stock enterprises increased, that of foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased, and that of private enterprises increased. Kaiford analysts believe that although the profits of Chinese enterprises have increased year-on-year, the profits of individual state-owned and collective enterprises have declined, and the ex-factory prices of enterprises have still decreased. There is still no great pressure on the current reform of state-owned enterprises, and the Chinese economy is still stabilizing. The bottom has not yet been determined, and investors still need to pay attention to China's market risks.
'The results of interviews conducted by the Nikkei News Investigative Department with famous Japanese business executives show that some believe that Japan's economy has deteriorated or there are signs of deterioration. The last statistics were. Among the reasons, they believe that insufficient personal consumption and the yen The largest proportion of respondents believe that the economy is getting better. According to previous statistics, 3% of the respondents believe that the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate policy is good for the economy, and 3 do not agree that negative interest rates are good for the economy. Analysts at Kayford believe that after Japan actually starts negative interest rates, the results are still difficult to predict. If it causes huge damage to the economy, it may lead to unpredictable policies. Japan's interest rate policy will be a greater risk in the next few months. Investors need to pay special attention to this incident.
' From a technical point of view, on the daily chart, silver prices closed on a small negative line on the previous trading day and continued to test the support at the lower edge of the early consolidation box. The U.S. dollar consolidated sideways. The frequent hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve officials are still in my ears. Silver The market will fluctuate within a narrow range, waiting for direction guidance from numerous economic data and events after the holidays. It should be noted that due to the coexistence of silver's monetary attributes and commodity attributes, and the impact of fluctuations in gold and oil prices, silver is more likely to form a wide-ranging trend. In addition, the world's largest silver has recently fallen into wait-and-see mode after reducing its holdings. Its entangled attitude towards the market outlook may imply that large fluctuations in the market are imminent, so we should pay close attention to it. From a long-term perspective, the silver price has not yet gotten rid of the bear market trend. From the hourly chart, the silver price once fell below the consolidation box after consolidation, but funds have bet on silver to make up for the increase. The silver price has been supported and will explore the previous high. However, It has no choice but to rise further and is unable to fall back. At present, it is taking advantage of the Fed's policy of keeping interest rates unchanged to turn upward again. After the breakthrough, it is suppressed again in the short term and falls back. Under the long-short divergence, it may need to wait for more news guidance. The Federal Reserve decided to maintain its previous interest rate policy at its March interest rate meeting, but future policy prospects still depend on the performance of economic data. If the U.S. economic data is unsatisfactory, silver prices are expected to rebound by taking advantage of the weakness of the U.S. dollar. Otherwise, they need to be wary of turning around and falling. The news is mixed with bulls and bears. The Fed's latest interest rate expectations chart shows that it may raise interest rates twice before the end of the year. The market will pay close attention to future changes in inflation, wages, employment growth and other indicators. The probability that the Fed will adopt a radical monetary policy of continued tightening is very small. , the fall of the US dollar will help gold and silver to improve, so it is recommended to follow the trend during the day, and mainly go long on dips or break through the range to pursue orders.
. Spot silver enters the market with a short order at
, stop loss 3 points, target 3
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