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Gold fell slightly today, following Tuesday's surge on dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Speculators are likely to take profit-making long positions ahead of the release of some key U.S. economic data this week, which will kick off with this afternoon's non-farm payrolls report. Dovish comments from Fed officials like Yellen typically support higher gold prices because gold is a non-interest-earning asset, making it less expensive to hold gold when interest rates fall or are expected to fall. Moreover, a fall in U.S. interest rates (or an expected fall in interest rates) usually leads to weaker buying demand for the U.S. dollar. Since gold is priced in US dollars, there is an inverse relationship between the two. Therefore, a falling dollar usually pushes gold prices higher. But the actual situation is far from that simple. Dovish comments also typically boost risk assets such as stocks, thereby weakening demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.
Therefore, in order for gold prices to rise sharply, in addition to a sharp fall in the U.S. dollar and a pessimistic view from major central banks such as the Federal Reserve, a risky trading environment is also required. What factors could cause the dollar to weaken further? The U.S. is set to release a slew of sterling macro data this week that could be weaker than expected, including today's jobs report and Friday's official employment data. If these numbers are significantly worse than expected, sentiment towards risk assets could actually worsen. Additionally, oil prices could pull back if today's official U.S. inventory data shows another surge. When China's manufacturing manufacturing data is released later this week, it could further muddy the waters if it points to continued weakness in the world's second-largest economy.
Technical Analysis
Let’s first review yesterday’s market trend. Yesterday, the white market opened higher and moved higher, reaching the high point of the day, and then began to fall to the low of the day. The overall roller coaster trend is obvious on the daily chart. , the daily moving average crosses the daily moving average and approaches the daily moving average. The green energy column in the attached picture strengthens and diverges downward. In the hourly chart, the moving average system is flat, running together, and the dead cross is downward. On the whole, I believe that there is still room for downward movement in asphalt, and the day-to-day operation is still dominated by short positions, supplemented by long orders. Yesterday's upward attack in the white market did not really break through, but the upward trend was blocked and turned downward. The short-term weakness is also obvious. For today, it is still to see the strength of the rebound, so as to go short. Focus on the pressure above.
Operation suggestions
, Go short nearby, stop loss 3 points, target
, - Go long, stop loss 3 points, target
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