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OPEC failed to reach a clear agreement on oil production strategy on Thursday as Iran insisted that the country significantly increase production. But its old rival Saudi Arabia has promised not to oversupply the market with large amounts of oil and is trying to repair relations within the organization.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran have made previous meetings fruitless. However, the tension at Thursday's meeting was not so tense. Saudi Arabia's new Energy Minister Falih (-) said that Riyadh hopes to ease the atmosphere. Iran Oil Minister Zanganeh has also unusually kept his criticism of the Saudi government to a minimum.
Member states also unanimously decided to appoint Nigeria's Barkindo as the new secretary-general, a rare compromise after years of bickering over the matter.
Although Saudi Arabia has not determined new policies or production caps, it still seeks to calm market concerns. The market had been worried that the meeting's inconclusive outcome might lead Saudi Arabia to further increase production to punish its opponents and capture more market share. But Falih told reporters: Our approach will be very gentle to ensure that we will not shock the market in any case. When asked whether Saudi Arabia would speed up oil production, he said: There is no reason to think that Saudi Arabia will continue to flood the market with large amounts of supply.
Iran insists that it should be allowed to increase production to the level before Western countries imposed sanctions. Zanganeh said Iran would not support a new collective production cap and wanted to discuss production quotas for each member state. Without setting production quotas on a country-by-country basis, nothing would be controlled. He insisted that Iran should receive a quota equivalent to .% of total production based on historical production levels. But Zanganeh reassured that he was pleased with the outcome of the meeting and that other oil producers showed no signs of intending to increase output.
This factor is negative for oil prices in the short term, but it is also important that Saudi Arabia does not intend to let a large amount of supply hit the market.
Looking at the daily chart, crude oil this week is basically in a bearish correction. The pace of the correction has been slightly lower this week overall. Looking at crude oil online this week, the overall bullish trend has changed from the moving average in the previous weeks. Now the daily moving average and the daily moving average have formed a closed downward trend. However, the daily moving average is still an important support, that is, the U.S. dollar has been cross downward for a long time. There is a flat bottom trend, so you can go short on dips next week. It is still observed that the current red kinetic energy column has disappeared and the green kinetic energy is increasing. Looking at the daily line as a whole, crude oil has room for further decline next Monday.
Taken together, Wu Zhaoteng believes that everyone understands that the impact of original market news on market trends is only temporary. The recent bullish increase in oil prices is mainly due to the recovery of bullish confidence due to a slight improvement in supply and demand in the oil market. However, Wu Zhaoteng needs to remind everyone here that since the dumb guns released at the recent meeting may lead to a decline in its credibility in the market and the collapse of bull confidence, this will be detrimental to the short-term rebound in oil prices after the bubble is over-fermented and bursts. The overall idea is to go short on the pullback and focus on -. Pay attention to the US dollar below the US dollar.
Reference ideas for spot crude oil operations next week:
. In the long-term rebound of oil prices, pay attention to the pressure above - the US dollar short-term stop loss. If the target is above, look at the US dollar band. In the short-term, if the US dollar is short, look at the US dollar. Yes