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This morning, the US/crude oil inventory and monthly short-term energy outlook report will be released. Production disruptions in places such as Venezuela and Libya have affected U.S. crude oil imports, which have declined. U.S. refineries can only consume a large amount of their own reserves. Crude oil inventory data released this week may record another decline, thus boosting oil prices.
The current median survey expectation shows that the change in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week of March 3 will fall by 10,000 barrels.
In addition, global stock markets generally recovered on Tuesday, which increased the market's risk appetite, and the latest gaming company data also showed that the possibility of Britain remaining in the European Union is still relatively high. The market's concerns about Britain's departure from the European Union have cooled down. The decline in safe-haven buying demand has formed a negative impact on gold prices. However, given that the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this month has been extremely low, gold prices still have a chance to resume their gains in the future.
In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fluctuated and climbed higher on Tuesday. U.S. crude oil monthly futures once refreshed a nearly eight-month high of $. Crude oil inventories will further decrease, the supply side will tighten, and demand recovery is expected to increase. Crude oil bulls will take advantage of the weakness of the US dollar to make an upward move.
The recent significant rebound in international oil prices is now around US dollars per barrel, which has greatly reduced the urgency for OPEC to cut production. As crude oil consumption picks up, the oversupply situation in the international crude oil market has been significantly alleviated. Data from the International Energy Agency shows that in the first half of this year, the international average daily crude oil production exceeded consumer demand by about 10,000 barrels, and the oversupply phenomenon has improved significantly.
OPEC’s continued high production capacity without an upper limit has had a great impact on North American shale oil production. At present, OPEC’s low oil price market strategy has obviously affected the production of North American shale oil. Shale oil production continues to decline. Companies producing less oil are also cutting jobs.
Under this effect, a new international crude oil market balance has become increasingly clear, that is, when there is excess production capacity, the decline in crude oil prices will lead to a decline in the output of emerging shale oil with higher oil production costs. International oil prices have been supported and rebounded. At this time, many oil wells, including shale oil, were able to resume production. At the same time, oil-producing countries have no choice but to maintain production in the market competition. The situation of crude oil supply exceeding demand is difficult to reproduce, which makes it difficult for crude oil prices to return to the past level of exceeding US dollars per barrel, nor to fall to the US dollar, but to remain at a mid-range price.
Spot silver trend analysis Spot silver/Dalian recycled silver intraday trend fluctuates at the resistance level and goes down. The daily minimum hits the safe-haven buying demand, which lowers the risk appetite. Gold and silver are under pressure and go down. On the hourly chart, the D cross is downward and the main line is above the axis. All indicators in the chart are flat, and in the early morning period, we still see that the decline will continue to fluctuate and weaken. For operations, we can take a light position, sell high, buy low, buy low, and make small losses. The operating range is -.
Analysis of the trend of spot crude oil. Spot crude oil/Dalian recycled oil continues to rise during the day. The support below is still effective. The overall upward trend is currently strong. The upward trend has been tested multiple times during the day and has reached the highest. The oil price has repeatedly tested and then moved downward, and each time a new high point is reached, making it Oil prices continue to be in the rising channel. The upward momentum of the indicator opening on the hourly chart still exists. Considering the release of data in the early morning, Wu Zhaoteng does not recommend that everyone hold positions overnight (market expectations are bullish). In the early morning operation, the short single point above the nearby long order is conservative to be determined.
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